Abstract: Share market has a prominent place in the economy of a country. In Sri Lankan context, share trading contributes one third of the Gross Domestic Product. Share market investments are considered as high return investments, but in cooperated with high risk. As such, scientific forecasting takes the place of a light house in share market investments. Scientific forecasting techniques used in share markets can be subdivided into two parts; statistical techniques and soft computing techniques. Statistical techniques are categorized in to univariate techniques and multivariate techniques. This study was focused on univariate statistical techniques. The study compares the forecasting ability of Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model and Circular Model in forecasting Sri Lankan share market returns.
Keywords: Auto Regressive Integrated Moving Average Model, Circular Model. Title: Comparison of ARIMA & Circular Model in Forecasting Sri Lankan Share Market Returns Author: W.G. S. Konarasinghe, N. R. Abeynayake, L.H.P.Gunaratne ISSN 2394-9716 International Journal of Novel Research in Interdisciplinary Studies Novelty Journals