Abstract: There is a growth of tourist arrivals from all the regions to Sri Lanka. Increasing of tourist arrivals could cause either positive or negative effect on the country. Therefore, it is important to minimize the risk and maximize the benefits. To get the maximum benefits, it is vital to forecasting arrivals, hence, the study was focused on forecasting arrivals from Western Europe to Sri Lanka. Monthly tourist arrival data for the period of, January 2008 to December 2015 was obtained from Sri Lanka Tourism Development Authority (SLTDA). Time Series plots and Auto-Correlation Functions (ACF) were used for pattern recognition of arrivals. It revealed that the arrivals have both trend and seasonal patterns. As such, the Decomposition Techniques and Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) were tested for forecasting arrivals. The Residual plots, Anderson-Darling, Durbin-Watson, and Ljung-Box Q (LBQ)-tests were used as the goodness of fit tests in model validation. The best fitting model was selected by comparing the relative and the absolute measurements of errors. The results revealed that the SARIMA satisfied model validation criterion but not the Decomposition models. It is concluded that the SARIMA performed extremely well in forecasting arrivals. However, arrivals show wave-like patterns. It is recommended to test the Circular Model (CM), which is specifically developed to model wave-like patterns, in order to see whether the forecasting accuracy increases.

Keywords: Decomposition Techniques, Measurement of Errors, SARIMA.
Title: Model Comparison on Forecasting Tourist Arrivals to Sri Lanka from Western Europe
Author: K.M.U.B Konarasinghe
ISSN 2394-9651
International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics
Novelty Journals

Abstract: Invasive weeds are being explored as alternative sources of energy. Prosopis juliflora is an invasive weed. It was investigated to establish if it is a viable and sustainable source of energy. Prosopis juliflora stem (biomass) was used in the production of briquettes using anthill soil as binder. The first part of the study involved the determination of the best particle size of biomass in relation to the calorific value of briquette. The particle size of biomass was varied at 100, 250, 425, 600 and 850µm. Each size of biomass was blended with anthill soil (particle size 0.25mm) at a ratio of biomass: anthill soil (1:0.2). Mixing was done using a laboratory scale mixer. The briquettes were formed using a hydraulic piston press and compaction was done using a force of 15Mpa. The calorific value of the briquette formed from each particle size was determined and the particle size which gave the highest calorific size was used for further studies. The results of this study indicate that the briquette produced from a particle size of 425 µm had a calorific value of 22.42MJ/kg which was higher than 15.42, 17.53, 21.37 and 19.34MJ/kg for 100, 250, 600 and 850µm particle size respectively. The moisture content, durability test index, volatile matter content, ash content, fixed carbon content, and density of the briquette produced at 425 µm was established to be 9.6%, 93.25%, 76.2%, 1.25%, 12.95% and 746kg/m3 respectively. From the findings, the briquettes produced from Prosopis juliflora stem and anthill soil as binder can be used as an alternative source of fuel especially in the rural and peri-urban areas of Kenya. Since Prosopis juliflora is found in plenty in Baringo County, it can serve as a sustainable and environmentally friendly source of energy.

Keywords: Binder, Calorific Value, Density, Fixed Carbon, Moisture, Prosopis juliflora, Volatile Matter, Weed.
Title: PRODUCTION OF BRIQUETTES FROM Prosopis juliflora STEM AND ANTHILL SOIL
Author: Wiseman Tumbo Ngigi
ISSN 2394-9651
International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics
Novelty Journals

Abstract: Microbes are living organisms, they carry out extremely useful processes and they are the best preferable sources of proteases with compared to plant and animal. Proteases are physiologically necessary for almost all living organisms such as bacteria, fungi and viruses.  It is multipurpose group of enzymes which mainly produced from microorganism and used in various industries such as detergent, silver recovery, food, pharmaceutical, leather, and textile industries. This work aimed to isolate protease producing bacteria from local habitat for use as polyester recovery from waste X-ray film. Isolation of protease producer was undertaken using skim milk agar medium. A total of 47 protease positive bacteria were isolated from the study area. Ten isolates were screened for gelatin hydrolysis test and out of ten; two potential isolates (Abc2 and Abc5) were selected based on gelatin removal efficiency. All ten isolates were found to be positive for Gram reaction, citrate utilization, catalase; motile and rod shaped morphology. However, they found to be negative for methyl blue test. The crude enzyme from isolate Abc2 and Abc5 were digested gelatin layer on waste X-ray film at 30oC in 120 and 140 min respectively. Used X-ray film was lost 5.6% of its weight after treatment of film with crude enzyme. These properties suggest that protease enzyme produced in this study could find potential application in silver recovery process and reuse of polyester sheet which have an economic implication besides mitigating the risk of our environment.

Keywords: Polyester Recovery, X-Ray Film, Gelatin, Protease, Hydrolysis.
Title: Isolation and Screening of Protease Producing Bacteria from Local Habitat for Polyester Recovery from Waste Photographic Films
Author: Temam Abrar Hamza, Alemayehu Letebo
ISSN 2394-9651
International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics
Novelty Journals

Abstract: Citrus ranks as the fourth most important type of fruit produced in the Philippines after banana, mango, and pineapple. Citrus nobilis, which is grown primarily in Guimaras and the Panay islands, is sold mainly for its juice and pulp while the peels and the leaves are left to waste.  In order to maximize the value of the plant, essential oils will be extracted from both the peels and leaves of C. nobilis via steam distillation. Physicochemical analysis of the dalanghita peel (PEO) and leaf (LEO) essential oils will determine their potential application in the industry.  Investigation of their physical properties showed that the density, color, odor, congealing point, and refractive index of both essential oils were nearly identical. GC-MS analysis identified seven compounds in the PEO, and twelve compounds in the LEO. D-limonene, gamma-Terpinene, beta-Linalool, and diethyl phthalate were identified to be present in both essential oils. Antioxidant property of the oils were tested using the 1,1-diphenyl-2-picrylhydrazyl (DPPH) assay with the LEO showing an IC50 = 150ppm while the PEO has an IC50 = 493 ppm. Antibacterial properties of the oils were tested using the Kirby Bauer Disc Diffusion method where both oils showed activity against E. coli and S. aureus.

Keywords: citrus leaves, citrus nobilis, citrus oils, dalanghita, dalanghita essential oil, dalaghita oil composition, essential oil, GC-MS analysis of citrus oils, phyisicochemical properties of oil, antioxidant property of oils, antibacterial property of essential oil.
Title: PHYSICO-CHEMICAL CHARACTERIZATION OF ESSENTIAL OIL FROM THE PEEL AND LEAF OF DALANGHITA (Citrus nobilis)
Author: Julienne Stephanie Fabie-Agapin, Steve Janagap, Jay Martizano, Danilo Ortillo, Vivian Azucena-Topor
ISSN 2394-9651
International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics
Novelty Journals