Vol 8 Issue 3 September 2021-December 2021
Bernard Kipruto Kimaiyo, Isaac Mwangi, Virginia Kitetu
Abstract: Cholera is an infectious water borne disease caused by the gram-negative bacterium Vibrio Cholerae. It is manifested in signs and symptoms such as severe rice-water diarrhea and vomiting. It is mainly a disease of countries and regions with high inequality levels, conflict and resource starved. Globally, it affects more than 2.8 million people and kills about 95000 people annually. This thesis seeks to investigate the impact of management of cholera through hospitalization with a major focus on Baringo county. It has a model for mathematical epidemiological modelling to investigate the disease dynamics and the consequential impact of hospitalization as a measure to manage outbreaks. The stability of the cholera dynamics was determined analytically indicating that for cholera outbreaks to be managed effectively the basic reproduction should be less than one. The basic reproduction number was determined and analyzed analytically. The sensitivity analysis of the parameters was conducted with respect to their contribution to the basic reproduction number. The numerical solution was determined and used to draw conclusion on future trends of the disease dynamics under different prevailing conditions.
Keywords: Cholera dynamics, mathematical modelling, epidemiological modelling, hospitalization modelling, sensitivity analysis.
Title: The Impact of Hospitalization in the Management of Cholera: A mathematical Modelling Approach
Author: Bernard Kipruto Kimaiyo, Isaac Mwangi, Virginia Kitetu
International Journal of Novel Research in Physics Chemistry & Mathematics